From: David Edgar
Sent: Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 3:12 PM
Subject: Re: Dramatic Price Increases in Ingredients
Hop Supply and Early 2007 Crop Update
Here are some comments from Ralph Olson's talk two weeks ago during Hopunion's annual Hops & Brew School seminars in Yakima (also used as the basis for a Hop Update presentation I gave last Saturday to the MBAA District New England in Portland, ME). Ralph is very busy at the moment between receiving hops, buying hops and quoting different brewers for contracts, so he asked me to send this post.
"The hop world is upside down. In the future we see the possibility of brewers shutting down for lack of hops."
For US hops 2007 is looking like an average crop, but not a bumper crop.
Slovenia (grower of Styrians) lost at least 1/3 and possibly as much as 1/2 of their crop to a hailstorm.
The Czech crop is down 25% this year. Estimated alphas on Czech Saaz from the 2007 crop are 2.7 - 2.9.
The German crop is average at best with earlier aroma hops coming in below normal (such as Hallertau Mittelfruh).
New Zealand and Australia crops this year (which arrived in the US in June and July) were normal.
England is almost out of the hop business. Their acreage of 2,400 in 2006 (down from 17,000 in 1976) represents 2 percent of the worldwide acreage.
World acreage:
1986: 215,600
1992: 236,000
2006: 123,000
Ralph's best guess is that in 1992 the acreage should have been between 160,000 - 170,000 if it was to match world demand/usage at that time. The 1990s' excess hop crop ended up being processed into pellets and extracts, building up substantial excess inventory. Excess production that was 2, 3 and 5 years old was selling on the open market and as a result brought prices down. Hop prices had dropped so low in recent years that in many cases they were lower than what it costs to grow them. For example: prices got as low as $1.70/lb. for pellets of Cascade.
That is way below what it takes for a hop grower to cover his costs.
High-alpha hops and some aroma hops are going overseas - the high rate of the Euro is a factor.
In the spot market for high-alpha hops, growers are not putting a price on them yet. They're waiting to see how high the prices may go.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s the prices were depressed and growers were starting to throw in the towel, to either switch to other crops, or sell out to real estate developers. The ones who stayed in it and managed to survive without going under are pleased to be in this situation now, which is 180 degrees opposite from where it was about 10 years ago.
The demand for Cascades is up 30% this year alone. We are 300-400 acres short on Cascade compared to where we need to be. Cascade acreage was 1,003 in 2001, jumped up to 2,120 in 2003 (because one major brewer announced plans to use it, but then reversed course) and total Cascade acreage is now back near the same 2001-year-level, at 1,116 in 2006.
Prices are the highest they've ever been - and it's beyond comprehension. Cascades were priced at $7/lb. three weeks ago and are currently being quoted at or near $10.00/lb.
Willamettes went from $5.50 to $7.00/lb. and may also get to $10/lb.
It takes three years to get to full production on a new hop field, however, we don't have the number of growers needed to put new acres in (the total of US growers is about 45, down from more than 2000 in 1978. About new 2,000 acres are going in this year; almost all of those are high alpha. The Cascade increase in acreage is 0.
"We are, in my opinion, in trouble."
What's the bottom line? Certain varieties are getting a lot more expensive. A few varieties will run out faster than ever. Brewers have to be willing to try other varieties. Brewmasters, brewery owners, and marketing and sales managers must prepare for the potential need to substitute different hops, to replace varieties that currently give your beers their "signature" flavor. That's what we'll have to get used to, the fact that there may be slight flavor variations over the next several years, as the hop industry works to correct this situation. It's not going to get better soon, but will be likely just as bad, or worse, for the crops from 2008 and 2009, in other words, for beers brewed from now through 2010.
Wish we had better news to report!
David Edgar
Mountain West Brewery Supply, Inc., representing:
* Chrisdec www.chrisdec.com & Rastal www.rastal.com
* Hopunion www.hopunion.com
* White Labs www.whitelabs.com
* Chrislan Ceramics www.chrislanceramics.com
More Hop Doom and Gloom
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steve_flack
More Hop Doom and Gloom
From link
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oblivious
, better start buying a few extra hops with every grain order before price goes up-
steve_flack
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bitter_dave
- Even further under the Table
- Posts: 2170
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steve_flack
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steve_flack
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prodigal2
At this rate we will all be needing to keep our hops under lock and key 
The stratospheric rise in grain prices and the hop situation is a kick in the nuts for ALL brewers, commercial and home.
And the grape harvest in europe is not going well either
At this rate we will have house ales made mainly from sugar, gravy browning and heather. And malt and hop based beverages for special occasions
The stratospheric rise in grain prices and the hop situation is a kick in the nuts for ALL brewers, commercial and home.
And the grape harvest in europe is not going well either
At this rate we will have house ales made mainly from sugar, gravy browning and heather. And malt and hop based beverages for special occasions
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mr bond
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Graham
That is worrying. We can't even grow our own ruddy hops anymore. That might explain why English Hops Ltd, seem to have gone. We are not far off from being a third-world country - I think we already are.England is almost out of the hop business. Their acreage of 2,400 in 2006 (down from 17,000 in 1976) represents 2 percent of the worldwide acreage.
When I first wrote my books I had contact with several brewing research organisations, all of which were very helpful and some even offered me free laboratory facilities. They have nearly all gone now, and many of those that remain are a shadow of their former self.
The same in electronics. I have recently developed a highly advanced model railway controller. But looking around for sources of supply to get this thing made, all of the traditional component suppliers have gone, with one or two expensive exceptions. We don't make anything in this country any more, so there is no need for a supply industry.
It is very depressing.
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Chiltern Brewer
As seems to be the case with most industries it looks like the Chinese are set to take over hop growing. Xinjiang Stunner anyone? 
The BBC Countryfile programme a few weeks ago on the Kent Hop harvest painted a fairly black picture too. IIRC, the UK growers where surviving either by diversifying or growing the old varieties that the micro/independent breweries want, and not by trying to compete with high AA hops grown abroad.
Anyway, it means there's even more incentive to grow your own hops!
The BBC Countryfile programme a few weeks ago on the Kent Hop harvest painted a fairly black picture too. IIRC, the UK growers where surviving either by diversifying or growing the old varieties that the micro/independent breweries want, and not by trying to compete with high AA hops grown abroad.
Anyway, it means there's even more incentive to grow your own hops!
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Chiltern Brewer
I know I let my bines takeover a bit, but unless you live in a flat (allotment?) I think most people could find a ugly bit of fence or shed to cover? You can also augment your own hops with a few bought ones. Point taken though, it's a good job I like Challenger as it was all I could grow this year.DaaB wrote:That's all very well but as nice as it is to grow your own, you need a lot of space for only a small number of brews and you are limited on variety.
